I want to start posting my take's on the day at the end of the day. So will use this post to do that on following days I'll post in the comments section.
Anyway, spent most of today disconnected, when I did get home I saw that Starbucks (SBUX) was down about 4% on it's warning due to increased costs. I think this is a half truth, yeah costs are increase, but I also believe their brand is in decline and that the consumer as a whole will become less and less interested in 3 dollar cofees.
Also, I don't understand the differential in price for iced coffee versus regular coffee, the product is ostensibly the same just with ice, yet it the price is not the same as it's smoldering hot brethren.
SBUX closed at 26.26 and was down further in after hours. I'm thinking the downside may be between 22-24, would need to reevaluate my put position at that price. Also considering buying a call if there is a high volume down day on no news, might be a nice trade on a near term bounce.
Couple links, loved this first video, the dude is really pissed. Love the lame excuse about the auction establishing a "fair market" price.
Florida video
Link to star trib story on stripper in real estate biz.
Positions-
Long NEM, PAAS, GLD, SLV, NSTK, SBUX puts, MTG puts
Wagers-
Thinking about ways to play the latest Yankee slide...
3 comments:
Yesterday, SBUX continued its descent. Finished in the middle $25, I sold one put and may sell another on Monday. I'm looking to buy a January out of the money call to play the bounce back and a smaller put position than my old one to continue to play the descent.
I'm also continuing to follow story from Bear Stearns, that may turn into a huge story later this year.
No action on the Yankees yet, think they will win a couple and then tank again.
Well, EOD isn't really working out so I'm officially changing the title of this post to EOWTHIFLI (End Of Whenever The Hell I Feel Like It) which seems more appropriate. Anyway, it's the end of the week July 21, couple of things to comment on. First SBUX closed the week up a bit to around 27.50, which I believe is the 200 day moving average and a key strike price seeing that Friday was options expiration. Unfortunately I was unable to capture any of the upside wasn't able to buy the calls at the price I liked. I'd like to see it run to 28 or 28.5 and then start to accumulate a put position. Earnings are on 8/1, I'd like to have some put exposure prior to that.
The other issue is that the dollar index attempted to break 80 this week, a break to the downside should really light a fire under gold, but I think there will be a bounce somewhere around 80. So I would like to lighten up some of the miner stocks on an up day next week.
The structured credit story continues to demonstrate its staying power. After lightening up and freeing up some cash I would like to acquire puts to play the financial meltdown that might await. I think that a dislocation may be close and if I'm right, I want to capture it.
Last topic, I also think I need to unwind my long IBM position. I think there may be a little more upside, if we see 120 I need to be out. I don't think earnings were as great as reported and it is trading on hype. What gives me pause is that each time I've sold, I've been wrong.
07/28--What a week... Credit is still a mess, I was in and out over the course of the week. On the finance side MTG and STI, looking to reestablish a position in MTG. Thinking I need to sell my IBM on a move up, think we may see one last run in technology due to the prevalent theme of rotating out of stuff going down and into tech. Will hold the puts on IBM and also picked up an AAPL LEAP put. Plan to try and hold that as long as possible.
On the dollar front, it seems to me that this counter trend dollar rally will be quite week with the index topping out around 81.50 or 82.00. However, it has reeked havoc on Metals and metals stocks. I plan to continue holding.
NSTK ended the week up 6%, it seemd on another Cramer recommendation. I hope to have the nerve to hold all my shares through earnings this week, hoping for a positive outcome. If it is bad I'll need to lighten up, I assume that would be around the 11.50 or 11.0 level.
Really hoping NSTK will release more news and run past 14.
Until next time....
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